Rescuing Vancouver’s middle class from financial ruin

For the past week, The Province has been publishing a series of articles on Vancouverites who’ve left the region to seek a better life elsewhere. It seems as though the financial pressures on the middle class are finally prompting locals to leave the ‘Best Place on Earth’. This is not just about the housing crisis; it’s about the rising cost of living, from transportation, to medical services, to local taxes. The source of this burden is simple: our region runs off a false economy that has failed to provide the income increases necessary to support the majority of its residents.Vancouver is a gateway city built on foreign investment. This stark historical reality provides the basis for an economy that runs on real estate, tourism, and goods movement. All three of these industries serve primarily in the interests of the wealthy who have the capital to run these systems. For the workers, wages in goods movement and tourism are low, and while real estate can be a financial boon to an individual’s bank account, employment in this sector perpetuates the false economy, not to mention the fact that not everyone can flip properties for a living.

What we’re left with is a region where the majority of citizens subsist on low wage private employment, either in small businesses or multi-national chains, or middle wage public employment, increasingly strained by a reduction in public budgets. It’s not sustainable, and as the cost of living continues to skyrocket above acceptable levels, the middle class is beginning to feel the strains that the poor have felt in Vancouver for decades.

For those who care about the region, there’s only one option. We must end the false economy and bring forward a real one based on sustainable, inclusive growth in a post-industrial society. To meet this goal, I have four specific suggestions.

First, we must stop neglecting the economy. Metro Vancouver is renown for its efforts to protect agricultural lands and green space, and has produced plans to do so for the past fifty years. Never once has there been a comprehensive regional economic strategy. There should be a concerted effort at the regional level to discuss these issues, to come up with specific plans to help grow key industries, and to create a revolving economic strategy for the entire region.

Secondly, in concert with the above, we must recognize that local economies do not end at municipal borders. As a region with 22 municipalities, the level of bureaucratic barriers to doing business is no doubt stifling. Our cities should work together to harmonize their by-laws, their building codes, and their business licencing standards to cut unnecessary red tape. Think of it as a free-trade agreement for Metro Vancouver.

Thirdly, we need to invest in and re-imagine education. Too much human capital is wasted in our current system, either with the 20% of high school students who drop out or the nearly 50% of adults who are functionally illiterate. Too many people fall through the cracks and become a burden on society instead of adding wealth to the economy. We need to build a post-secondary education system of constant enrolment, with more varied levels of certification and time commitment, to ensure that people have access to the re-training and upgrading of their skills. Lowering or removing the cost barrier to this system will be key to eliminating wasted human capital.

Finally, we must instill a culture of entrepreneurship in our region. Americans value the free enterprise system because they recognize that it enables anybody with an idea to take it to the market. We need to embrace capitalism instead of turning our backs on it. When more people access the system and compete in the market, better products, services, and wages are created. Matched with our existing local values of environmental stewardship and social inclusion, I have no doubt that we could create a new form of ethical capitalism that can be a model for the world.

The challenge is no doubt great. What we must do is nothing short of re-inventing the fabric of this region since colonialism. But perhaps, by traveling just beyond that time, to the era of pre-contact, we can find hope. It was in those days when local First Nations, all of whom remain today, had a responsible, sustainable, and inclusive economy. Let us find inspiration in their resilience and strength and restore that once great economy back to the lands of the mighty Fraser.

Why education will always be a human-intensive activity

There’s a growing consensus out there that not only does education needs to be disrupted, but that the logical conclusion of such change is to digitize learning. While I agree that schools need a major overhaul, the diagnosis that education ought to be automated is completely absurd.

Two articles speak to this ideology. The first was published on TechCrunch and claimed that teachers would be replaced by technology – essentially, software can do as effective a job as a human. The second was published on the Huffington Post, stating that higher education was necessarily being disrupted by new self-service online instructional platforms that would break down the cost barriers to university.

Both articles are based on an ideology that defines learning as the accumulation of knowledge – I would contest such a notion. To be truly educated means one must be able to think critically, to synthesize different facets of knowledge, to effectively express one’s self to others, and to learn how to learn. Education of this depth can never be adequately facilitated by an online platform powered by multiple-choice exams.

There’s no doubt that the way schools currently operate needs disruption. The traditional model features a teacher transmitting “knowledge” into the empty brains of students. This is the way most schooling occurs, from grade school to grad school. This model lends itself greatly to replication online. Indeed, why should any student go to a physical building or pay thousands to attend university if the quality of the education can be obtained cheaper or more conveniently from an internet connection.

In this sense, the disruptive forces of these so-called innovations are good. They are prompting brick-and-mortar education to up their game and change their modus operandi. To survive in such an environment, face-to-face learning will need to become more valuable that a simple one-to-many transmission of static knowledge.

In its replacement will emerge collaborative, multi-disciplinary, engaged, and personalized learning that delves into the deep questions. Teachers will no longer be “teachers” but rather facilitators of the learning process.

Technology will play a part in enabling this shifting of roles and learning environments, but it will never outright replace the vast majority of face-to-face education. In depth education is simply too multi-faceted, complex, and ever-changing for algorithms to ever produce.

Ethical oil? There’s no such thing.

One of the strongest cases made to support the expansion of the Alberta oil sands is the proposition that our oil is ethical when compared to reserves from the Middle East. From a geopolitical perspective, the purchase of oil from Canadian markets over Arab markets makes sense, but such a conclusion is simplistic at best.

According to Merriam Webster, ‘ethical’ is defined as that which “conforms to accepted standards of conduct.” This definition inherently recognizes that ethics are not static – they are created, endorsed, and re-shaped over time by society. What may be ethical or accepted behaviour in one place may not be shared by another. These standards of conduct shift due to accepted understandings of what is right or wrong, based on our knowledge at a particular time.

For example, it was not long ago that slavery was accepted as ethical behaviour. The notion that human beings could be bought or sold and had no rights of their own to freedom was simply taken as a norm. It was not until this notion was challenged and acceptability changed that slavery was abolished and outlawed. Individuals heard arguments for and against slavery, and ultimately decided that it was in fact unethical.

In the case of oil, modern society has gone through its own process of debate and, I dare say, enlightenment. During the industrial revolution, the use of fossil fuels to power our machines was not questioned. The immediate effects of pollution were dealt with by the rich, and later the middle class, by leaving the inner city for healthier, suburban spaces. Technology was also created to help reduce and mitigate this pollution.

The lesser known, more latent effects of that fossiel fuel usage is, of course, climate change. While on the radar for nearly three decades by scientists, a generally global consensus that, one, it is occurring, and two, it is man-made, has only emerged in roughly the past five years.

Five years ago, the source of your oil was of ethical concern. A country like Canada or Norway, with better records on human rights, would be a more ethical purchase than oil from Russia, Latin America, or the Middle East. But based on our new global consensus on the negative effects of fossil fuel usage, the purchase of any oil, no matter where it comes from, is no longer ethical.

When we are aware of the harmful and long lasting, perhaps irreversible, effects of climate change on people around the world, any corporation, person, or country that continues to purchase and burn oil is acting unethically.

Now there are those who will argue that anyone who currently relies on oil, or fossil fuels, for any part of their lifestyle, are therefore acting unethically. Often this argument is thrown at environmentalists, deeming them to be hypocritical for taking a flight or driving a car. Of course, under the new paradigm this is indeed unethical, but the burden placed on the individual is far too great, when said person has such a limited control on their options for survival. We would not accuse a middle-class individual for choosing to be fat if their neighbourhood is surrounded by fast-food restaurants and grocery stores filled with processed foods. Their choices are constricted by the larger societal processes, leaving much of the responsibility to corporations and governments.

When renewable and clean energy sources are available as freely and priced at the same rate as fossil fuels, and individuals have a legitimate option available, if they continue to purchase the non-renewables, they ought to be deemed as acting unethically. If they switch to the clean energy option, they are choosing to adopt ethical behaviour.

With this in mind, when a corporation – Enbridge – and a government – Alberta and Canada – actively seek to expand the oil sands for export to energy hungry nations, they are choosing to be irresponsible global citizens and are acting against the best interests of society. The ethical option would be to take our existing wealth to invest in clean energy sources, a move that would drive down their costs and put them on a level playing field with fossil fuels.

We are living in a new era where we deeply recognize and understand the negative impacts of fossil fuels. Corporations and governments that refuse to shift their behaviour in this new environment fail to grasp that our ethics have evolved, our norms have changed, and that such choices are no longer acceptable.

100 billion dollar oil windfall for Canada? Not quite.

With the hearing on the Northern Gateway pipeline having just begun, the oil industry is already on the offensive, pushing several reports that are proclaiming over a hundred billion in economic activity for the country as a result of the project. To the layman, hearing that one pipeline could bring in such a huge amount of money almost makes the environmental risks seem negligible. In an era of fiscal tightening, the pipeline seems to be an obvious economic boon. As I soon learnt, when things sound too good to be true, it’s because they are.

To get to the bottom of this, I went straight to the main source: a report from the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy released late December. Here’s a blurb from the press release:

“With better access and new pipeline capacity, oil producers will see more efficient access to international markets which can add up to $131 billion to Canada’s GDP between 2016 and 2030,” the authors write. “This amounts to over $27 billion in federal, provincial and municipal tax receipts, along with an estimated 649,000 person-years of employment.”

Not surprisingly, Alberta, with its robust oil reserves, will be the principal beneficiary, but the authors stress that “most every single province and territory will realize fiscal and economic gains.”

“These are impressive figures,” concluded co-author Michal Moore. “The rewards of additional pipelines for all of Canada are too great to ignore.  Pipelines must be a national priority.”

The final paragraph is perhaps the most revealing in how dedicated the authors are to spin their meagre results. A real look at the numbers shows that, while the figures may be impressive to Alberta, there is a negligible benefit to the rest of the country. My analysis would argue vehemently with the conclusion that this project is in the national interest.

Another interesting element, hidden between the lines, is that these calculations are based not just on the Northern Gateway pipeline, but on the construction and expansion of several others, including the Keystone XL project currently on hold in the USA. Also, while the revenue windfall sounds large, it is important to acknowledge that this is on a 14 year time horizon.

Let’s take a look at the details.

The report is predicated on the realities of the existing market: world oil demand remains robust, but our main source for export is America, which has become saturated. In addition, oil sands bitumen faces bottlenecks in the mid-west, where current pipelines end, a ways from the large refineries in the Gulf Coast.

The report calls for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would directly connect the oil sands to the refineries in the Gulf, eliminating the production bottlenecks and opening up the resource to a larger market quicker. It also calls for expansion of pipelines down to California, where there is an excess of refinery space for the oil sands and ports for export. Finally, the Northern Gateway pipeline is deemed necessary to export the bitumen to Asian refineries, which would ultimately help the Albertan industry escape the captive American market and command higher prices. The financial conclusions assume that all three of these expansions are completed on schedule.

The report says that, from 2016 to 2030, the projects would create $131 billion in economic activity in Canada – let’s deconstruct that a bit. 87% of that figure results from the Keystone XL pipeline, while only 8% is derived from the Northern Gateway project. At eight percent, the economic boon drops down to $10 billion for the Gateway pipeline; over 14 years, that brings us to $750 million in economic activity annually.

That’s not the whole story though. 95% of that economic activity is destined for Alberta, with 2.7% for Ontario, 1.2% for BC, and the remaining going to the rest of the country. One of the most prominent narratives put forth by the oil industry and reinforced by the federal government is that Northern Gateway is in the ‘national interest’. Poppycock.

This project clearly benefits Alberta, and Alberta only. Considering BC is taking on the majority of the risk with regards to oil spills, the benefits are grossly in favour of the producer province rather than the coastal one. Additionally, if 95% of the economic activity of this pipeline remains in Alberta, how can one argue that this will improve the life of Canadians in Nova Scotia, Nunavut, or Quebec?

The answer to that question is often parlayed into the government royalties and tax revenues that will result from the project. The report collated the increased government revenues that will head into municipal, provincial, and federal coffers, and sorted those monies down by province. Let’s take a look.

In the media, one will see the figure of $27 billion dollars destined for our governments, money that presumably would help fund healthcare and education. Once again, that figure is for all three projects, one of which, Keystone, is expected to bring in $23 billion. The Northern Gateway pipeline actually only contributes $2.17 billion to that figure – over 14 years.

Again, the ‘windfall’, if it can be called that at this point, is not distributed fairly. 92% of the government revenues head to Alberta. 4.3% are destined for Ontario, 1.6% for BC, 1% for Quebec, and a pittance for the rest of the country. To BC, that means an additional $350 million over 14 years, or $25 million annually in government revenue. To put that into perspective, out of BC’s 2011 budget of $41.9 billion, $25 million amounts to 0.005% of the total provincial coffers. $25 million can buy 50 buses or one recreation centre or high school.

For argument’s sake, let’s assume all three projects went ahead, and that the government revenues were in fact in the national interest; how much of a windfall is $27 billion over 14 years. That equals almost $2 billion a year – sounds like a fair chunk of change, eh? However, within the context of Canada’s 2009 federal budget of $237 billion, it amounts to just 0.82% of annual federal spending. But, that’s irrelevant, as 92% will go to Alberta anyways.

Add it all together, and the promise of a multi-billion dollar boon that will propel our economy and fund our social programs, well, it doesn’t sound all that valid anymore. Would there be economic opportunities? Absolutely. But when over 90% goes to one province, it’s hardly in the ‘national interest’.

So let’s not pretend that by approving the Northern Gateway pipeline, our deficits will just disappear, our taxes can be lowered, and we can properly fund healthcare and education, because the numbers just don’t add up.

The war on the middle class and the need for a new ‘New Deal’

These days, it feels as though everything in life is getting more expensive: hydro bills, the ferries, gas, taxes, MSP premiums – the list is endless. The middle class is feeling the squeeze, and although certainly the phenomenon existed in earnest prior to the recession, the economic situation isn’t helping matters. Expenses keep rising and families can barely keep up. What’s going on?

There is a war on the middle class, a war that began with the 1980′s shift in Western public policy towards neo-liberal governance: deregulation, privatization, tax cuts for the rich, and so on. The promise at the time was that these policies would stimulate economic investment and production, create well-paid jobs, and prosperity would in turn “trickle down” to the average Joe. After nearly thirty years in support of such policy, the evidence is quite clear that these promises have not been fulfilled.

According to a Statistics Canada report entitled “Earnings and Incomes of Canadians Over the Past Quarter Century, 2006 Census,” income disparity has grown enormously. Between 1980 and 2005, middle class Canadians’ incomes were stagnant. Real incomes, after accounting for inflation, grew by 0.1%. Meanwhile, for low-income Canadians – the bottom 20% – real incomes decreased by 20.6% over the same time period. In other words, while it may seem like the minimum wage is higher than in the past, when adjusted for the higher cost of living, they have actually less purchasing power today!  What about the rich, the ones who’ve gotten the most generous tax breaks? Not surprisingly, their real incomes have grown by 16.4%.

The rich have gotten richer, the poor have gotten poorer, and the middle class are stuck in a time warp getting nowhere fast. With data this clear, it truly begs the question – why do we continue to support such policy?

This federal election, middle class Canadians are being frightened by the Conservatives who claim that jobs will be lost and the economic recovery will come to a halt if the Liberals are elected and implement their plan to reverse corporate tax cuts, bringing them back to 2010 levels. The corporate tax rate is scheduled to decrease to 16.5% – the Liberals want to take it back up to 18%. Now, without context, this may seem like an asinine decision that will wreak havoc on the economy, when in fact, it isn’t. Relative to other countries in the G7, Canada already has the second lowest corporate tax rate in the West, a competitive edge that would not change if it was brought back up to 18%. Furthermore, one must question the true economic utility of the corporate tax cut, considering the USA, with historically the most productive economy in the modern world, has a corporate tax rate nearly 15% above ours.

Underlying the whole debate are two main premises. The first is the notion that lower taxes are the key to a more productive economy. Second, there is the view that a bustling economy will result in higher wages and improved quality of life for citizens. Let’s begin with number one.

While there is undoubtedly validity to a desire to remain within a reasonable competitive arena with regards to tax rates relative to other jurisdictions, we are confusing our means with our goals. Lower taxes do not create well-paid jobs, nor do they improve our productivity or raise real incomes. As we increasingly engage in a race to the bottom with Asia and other less regulated jurisdictions, we are decidedly lowering our standard of life to match theirs. As we lower taxes to try to compete with nations like China or India, all we end up doing is cutting into the very institutions that create and support our economic advantages – universal healthcare to support a healthy and productive society, public education to develop a knowledgeable and creative population, or essential civic infrastructure such as roads, sewers, water, and electricity that keeps our advanced economy moving forward. As we reduce our investments in these areas in an attempt to match developing nations’ tax advantages, we simply end up neglecting our own assets – strengths that, as of yet, can rarely be matched in such countries.

Additionally, if lower taxes spurred on productivity or investment, our economy should, on a per-capita basis, be on par with America’s, although that is clearly not the cast either. Canadian business leaders have for decades decried our productivity problem and yet lowering corporate taxes and incomes taxes for the rich has done little to reverse that trend. Quite simply, productivity is a measure of labour efficiency, a factor that cannot improve unless corporations re-invest their profits in their employees and industries. Canadian corporations have a knack for neglecting to invest in these critical resources, leaving our companies less competitive internationally and prone to takeovers from global investors. Recent analysis by the Globe and Mail has revealed that as the corporate tax rates has decreased over the past ten years, companies have decreased their investment in machinery and production – the complete opposite of what they’ve been demanding businesses do to improve productivity!

The second premise is the myth that the economic growth that we long for will result in an improved quality of life. For many, that means higher real incomes, as it is the basis upon which the luxuries of the now-globally-sought “America dream” can be purchased: the house, the car, the plasma TV, the vacations, and so on. As was already noted however, the “trickle down” economic policy of the past thirty years hasn’t improved real incomes for the middle class, while simultaneously decreasing real incomes for low-income Canadians, making the cycle of poverty even more ingrained than before. The only ones who have profited have been the rich. Unfortunately for the majority of Canadians, the so-called “dream” remains just that.

There was only one era in recent history where real incomes grew, quality of life improved, and wage disparities decreased. This time period, between the Great Depression and the end of World War II, launched the West into an era of vast prosperity for all – it was in fact during this time that the middle class was created. According to Paul Krugman, Nobel prize winning economist, the era he calls the Great Compression – as income disparity compressed – was precipitated on very different policies of the day: more income tax brackets with much higher rates for the rich, higher corporate tax rates, the minimum wage, employment insurance, social security, and the expansion of unionization. All part of the “New Deal” politics of the era, the development of the middle class in Western society took just eight years, according to Krugman. It has been slowly and steadily eroded ever since.

This lesson from history has much to teach us. First off, clearly our economic policy for the past several decades is not resulting in either the raising of real incomes for ordinary Canadians, nor is it lifting low income Canadians out of poverty. Our just society is more elusive than ever and obviously cannot come about as a result of our current economic philosophy.

Secondly, rather than tearing down unions, non-unionized workers ought to be organizing. When construction workers or service employees complain about their taxes paying for wage increases for public sector nurses or teachers, they are expressing frustration at their own lack of income improvement. Instead of trying to limit union workers demands, they need to start pressing their own employers for better wages, benefits, and working conditions. The companies that will succeed in the twenty first century are those that allow every employee the opportunity to earn a decent wage in a safe, respectable, and fulfilling work environment.

Thirdly, we must stop this race to the bottom. Canada is not China, nor is it Mexico, Thailand, or Bangladesh. We must recognize our own assets and continue to develop and market them on the world stage. We cannot play their game because we will not win. We need to keep the bar high, not just for safety, health, or environmental reasons, but for the very fact that these standards are what have come to define Canadian values and a Canadian lifestyle. We should never sacrifice these ideals to chase increasingly elusive, unstable, and low paying jobs that are being gambled off by transnational corporations to the lowest bidder. Instead, we must develop our own home grown talent, help instill a sense of socially-responsible entrepreneurialism in every Canadian, so that we can build the cutting edge companies and business models of tomorrow. The developing nations ought to be playing our game, striving to achieve our business standards and quality of life.

We have the potential to end the war on the middle class and to truly eradicate poverty in Canada, but it will only come about when we change our economic policies and begin to embrace and develop our unique assets in the West. The “trickle down” theories of the 80′s have clearly not worked – it is beyond time that we shifted gears into a new paradigm. Undoubtedly, the policies that created our modern society in the mid 20th century cannot simply be adopted wholesale to the global world of today. However, with some creativity, ingenuity, and innovation, I have no doubt that we will find a way to break out of our economic inertia, change course, and develop a “new New Deal” that will rise the tides across Canada and lift all boats into a new era of prosperity for all.