Combining two of my favourite loves - “Thriller” and rail transit. Sure, we may have SkyTrain parties, but nothing can beat this flashmob.
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Dave left a comment on my Transit Metropolis Vancouver post, challenging me to take it beyond a vision and to figure out if it is viable as a real plan, and how much it would cost. I didn’t quite fulfill that exact challenge, but combined it with the latest SkyTrain expansion plans in Surrey, and came out with this.
It’s a 14 paged document outlining what LRT is, why we shouldn’t build SkyTrain in the South Fraser area, and how much it would cost to build three LRT lines out here.
Surprisingly enough, the final estimate, based on a cost of $24 million per kilometre, three LRT lines totaling 100km in the South Fraser area could be built for $2.5 billion.
Considering that the SkyTrain extensions, tentatively set for completion between 2020-2030, will likely total nearly $5 billion by then, with only 22.7 kilometres of rail rapid transit.
I think the business case is clear. Check it out [PDF] and let me know what you think in the comments! :)
Sphere: Related ContentI’ve been periodically working on this project since mid 2007. I was originally planning to release it Monday, but Gordon Campbell was too quick to steal my thunder as I found out Sunday night. I have chosen to hold it off a bit unless the dust on that announcement settled.
I originally thought that my plan might become redundant with the Province’s announcement. Thankfully, it turns out that my plan is almost an extension of the Provincial Transit Plan.
Transit Metropolis Vancouver is my extensive plan based around the idea that transit in this region should work for 90% of the population, not 10%. As you can already tell, this far surpasses the Province’s goal of reaching a 20% transit modal share.
Two unique parts of my plan that weren’t at all touched in the Province’s: expanded commuter rail, and a whole new LRT, or “SkyTrain mini”, rail network. The goal, as I said, is to allow anyone to get anywhere in the region - quickly, conveniently, and comfortably.
Transit Metropolis Vancouver, in my mind, is almost a personal visioning practice for transit past the Province’s plan that ends in 2020. Check it out and let me know what you think.
Sphere: Related ContentThere has been more than a few questions about the odd conceptual routing of the extension of SkyTrain in Surrey. Based on the image provided by the province, SkyTrain was to run along 96th Ave, then cut through a neighbourhood, finally reaching 88th Ave and Fraser. It was a terrible alignment, attempting a half assed connection to Guildford, and then leaving the new terminus smack dab at one of the busiest intersections on Fraser in the Fleetwood community.
According to both an article in the Now, and Kevin’s recent speech to the Langley Chamber of Commerce, the alignment shown in the image is not the actual one being proposed by the government. How much of this is Kevin personal opinion versus actual an government decision is not at all known (although what is the difference these days?).
He says the 6km extension will leave King George Station north to 104th Ave, turn south down 152nd St, and then run east down Fraser Hwy to 168th St.
Furthermore, and again I have no idea if this is just his vision, but he said that by 2030, we would see two more SkyTrain extensions:
Click the image below to view the interactive Google Map.
All things considered, despite SkyTrain’s expensive cost, if the government is willing to pay for it, I’m happy. And with the “conceptual alignment” controversy being ironed out, the new proposed route will actually serve Surrey quite well.
Connections between Downtown Surrey and Guildford are quite popular and the route along 104th is currently quite busy. Guildford is still one of the largest malls in the region, and considering stations at malls are one of the mainstays of SkyTrain, it’s a good thing the route is going to hit it.
152nd St, between 104th and Fraser, is also a very busy route and will benefit from the SkyTrain. Furthermore, 152nd St is the other main road (King George is #1) that residents from South Surrey and White Rock take to get to North Surrey. Having a major hub at 152nd and Fraser will be great for these transit users, giving them an option between hopping SkyTrain from here, or taking a RapidBus to the Canada Line (assuming their destination is Vancouver).
Then of course, having the new terminus at 168th St, just before a major hill and dropoff into agricultural land, is a way better plan. This will allow for very fast connections from my community of Cloverdale as well as a very short route to Langley (basically through the agricultural land, a small community, then you’re there).
The unfortunate side of these new details is the current wait time for SkyTrain down King George. It’s always been the busiest route in Surrey, and I would personally say a SkyTrain connection to Newton would probably be a better short term improvement, despite all the newfound connections the other extension will provide to eastern and southernly communities. Also, the King George route has far more potential for transit oriented development.
Actually, Kevin, why not do both? Then, I’ll embrace your autocracy as something profoundly wonderful and will praise the road you walk on!
Sphere: Related ContentFirst off, an interview with Transportation Minister Kevin Falcon on the Christy Clark Show. He reveals a few more details about the plan, such as the funding mechanisms.
Click here to download or play the MP3
Then we have the full Global news story on the plan, with a brief overview at the beginning, and then political correspondent Keith Baldrey giving some scope to the proposal. He also mentions that the public will likely see Expo Line stations upgrades and the RapidBus routes coming in the first phase of the plan.
Sphere: Related ContentPremier Gordon Campbell put our money where his mouth is and the proposal is quite satisfying. 9 new RapidBus lines, 3 new Rapid Transit lines, 1500 new clean buses across the province, a commitment to turnstiles and a smart card system. Overall, it is quite huge, comparable in fact to a 2020 transportation plan set out in Ontario by Dalton McGuinty’s government, which also included a vast expansion of transit services. We should all be commending the provincial government for taking this necessary step - certainly a far more balanced situation than just getting Gateway.
However, as always the devil is in the details, and it’s the details that are lacking in the plan.
Funding
For example, the provincial government is not spending $14 billion. Only $11.1 billion is actual new money, and of that, the province is only putting in $4.75 billion - over the next 12 years. One could argue they aren’t really pulling their fair share of a plan they have initiated.
How’s the rest going to be paid? Well, Campbell is relying on Harper putting in a share of $3.1 billion - something the federal government has yet to do with Ontario transportation plan that also required a 1/3 share from Ottawa.
Then, the estimates are that TransLink will have to put in almost $2.75 billion. The agency currently has a surplus fund of $400 million - something that used to sound like a lot; not so much anymore. TransLink’s only way of raising any money is through a combination of increased fares, property taxes, and gas taxes. Over the course of 12 years, that means TransLink needs to raise an additional $230 million. The recent fare increase raised an additional
Seems likely that the $5 three zone fare is going up some more soon. Or maybe they’ll move forward on pursuing possible money from transit oriented development near stations…
In other areas of the province, municipalities will be throwing in about $500 million as well.
But don’t forget the private corporations. As we’ve already seen with the Golden Ears Bridge and the Canada Line, the provincial government is keen on having private corporations foot part of the bill as well. Kevin Falcon has already stated that even smaller projects, like the estimate $100 million it will cost to install turnstiles, will be handled by a private corporation through a P3.
Timeline
Compared to the past, when the Lower Mainland received 1 rapid transit line per decade, we are now getting three in 10 years. A good increase for sure.
But, what you have to realize is that many of these routes should have already been built. So in fact, we are playing catch up - and with this plan, the lines will continue to be 5-10 years away. Is that fast enough to relieve the congestion we have already? How much transit demand will there be that far away in the future? What intermediate steps will be taken to fix the situation in the meantime?
The fact remains, we need these rapid transit expansions today. What lines will we be needing by 2020, when the current extensions are just finishing?
Furthermore, there has been no estimate at all for the RapidBus BC system. Obviously, the Highway 1 route won’t be possible until the Port Mann is expanded - potentially completed by 2013.
The whole point of using buses is that they are a low cost option that can be launched in under a year. Whether these advantages are adopted has yet to be seen. It would be a very big shame if the routes took a number of years to implement, especially since we could start right now and get many of them in place immediately.
Routing
One of the things I find most interesting about the Rapid Transit and RapidBus plans is their routes. Frankly, it’s not all that surprising to see the UBC Line where it is, and the same goes to a lesser degree with the Evergreen Line. However, having the Province decide something like a possible extension of the Expo Line in Surrey doesn’t seem like the best choice to be made.
The Province doesn’t have a full grasp on the area first of all. I mean, just looking at where they’ve proposed it makes no sense at all. It seems like it attempts to get a station close to Guildford, even though it’s obvious that it’s quite a few blocks away from the mall no matter what. Then, it goes southeast towards 88th and Fraser, cutting right through a neighbourhood. I personally think that the current terminus is the best situation, but if they are going to extend it into Surrey further, it should just continue directly down Fraser Highway, and should end in an area where a large transit exchange and park and ride could be built - potentially at Fraser and 168th St.
I also found it amusing that the Province promotes RapidBus on routes that already have or are soon getting a B-Line: i.e. the Hastings to SFU route and the Joyce to UBC route via 41st. TransLink has been planning these for a while, and put the money in this year to create these B-Lines. What’s going on? Where is there overlap? Is it going to be a B-Line or a RapidBus BC route?
Same thing goes with the planned King George Busway by TransLink that has been adopted by the Province.
You’d also notice the White Rock to Richmond route - which is already a semi premium express coach route by TransLink.
What’s going on? Why is there overlap? What’s with the lack of coordination?
Where’s TransLink in this?
With this plan, what is the new role of TransLink. It seems that not only has the Province literally chosen the routes, timelines, and technologies for future rapid transit - not just rail based, but road based as well! Why should TransLink pursue a new regional transportation strategy if the Province is just going to institute a plan from the higher ups? Is TransLink simply going to be the agency that draw up the feeder routes? Is TransLink just the scapegoat of the Province - the operator, per say, that gets all the rider’s complaints?
The Reality of Governments and Plans
First off, we must understand that this is not so much a plan as it is a vision. That’s because, well, the money, past the first phase, is not at all guaranteed, and the government that’s in office in 2012 or 2017 could easily just scrap this plan altogether.
Take a look at what the Campbell government did to the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Clark government for the Millennium Line. That was a government agreement that the province would provide the funding to complete the rapid transit line, following a detailed routing and technology analysis. Once the NDP got booted out in 2001, whatever happened to that Memorandum of Understanding? Gordon Campbell through it out with the outgoing government.
Plans change and evolve so much these days that it’s very difficult to look at the maps and routes as something concrete - that is until funding is secured and the real work begins. Until then, this is nothing more than a vision.
Thankfully, however, we will soon see what amount of money the province is truly committed to when they release the February budget. At that time, we will find out what is included and is actually going to happen in the short term.
Wishful thinking
The plan is great. But there are definite concerns and it’s unfortunate that they released this plan without much of any coordination with TransLink or the municipalities. We are taking a huge step forward with this initiative - I just wished it happened faster and it looked out farther into the future.
Maybe that’s for my generation to plan once Campbell retires. But with more visions like these, I don’t think he’s going to leave the Premier’s office anytime soon. And maybe that’s a good thing. Hey, it worked out alright for transit in Metro Vancouver…
Sphere: Related Content10:55A - That’s it! Stay tuned for more details and analysis later. Here’s the province’s site on the plan. Here’s a detailed PDF.
10:49A - $1.2 billion for the RapidBus BC systems. $1.6 billion for 1,500 new, clean energy buses and related infrastructure
10:48A - $10.3 billion for 4 new rapid transit lines in Metro Vancouver. Evergreen Line, UBC Line, upgraded Expo Line and Canada Line
10:46A - Province only committing $4.75 billion. Remainder to come from federal government, TransLink and local governments.
10:45A - Here’s the press release.
10:42A - New rapid bus system in BC. Talking about Gateway Transit. Separate lanes. Signal priority. Nice stations. Multi door entry. 1 in Kelowna, 1 in Victoria, 7 in Metro Vancouver.
10:41A - 600 buses for province. Double buses in Lower Mainland. 80% of transit riders take buses. Green buses.
10:40A - $14 billion!
10:39A - Going green. New technologies in transit every 7 years. 12 year plan to 2020.
10:38A - Global leader in transit. Require partnerships with other levels of government. Reaching 20% of usage.
10:37A - Here’s Gordon Campbell now.
10:36A - 90% of population in regional centres of the province.
10:35A - Kevin Falcon talking about climate change ghgs emission target reductions. Hybrid buses. Government fleets go green. Cycling program. Low speed vehicles.
10:33A - Langley Township, Richmond, Langley City, Port Moody, Surrey, Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows Mayors. Some MLAs too.
10:32A - Here it starts. Listen live on CKNW.
10:28A - The room is *full*! Many mayors here. Tons of press. Will start shortly.
10:18A - Here’s a leak on the Bill Good Show. $10 Billion. High capacity, low energy buses for Metro Vancouver. Improvements in security. Extra investments in Canada Line. Funding for Evergreen Line. Victoria and Kelowna also get money. Funded by P3s and taxes.
10:15A - Carole James is doing her best to play politics in a situation that is likely to push her completely out of view
10:10A - Expectations that Victoria and the Interior will be shortchanged at the announcement. The Island will not likely get the LRT or commuter rail it wants. More assumed to be a bus-only road.
10:07A - There are worries that the announcement won’t include money for bus expansion that is needed. Metro Vancouver is currently short hundreds of buses.
10:05A - Vaughn Palmer is estimating a $10 billion budget.
10:00A - Everyone is speculating an M-Line extension, Evergreen Line completion with reroute through Riverview, future SkyTrain extension to Langley, and extended HOV express buses. Could just be that everyone latched onto Keith Baldrey’s speculations though.
9:52A - They are discussing the external costs of driving a car on the Bill Good Show. A lot of seniors are against more taxes (surprise, surprise).
9:50A - CKNW’s Bill Good Show has a BEST spokesperson and Gord Price on to talk about the announcement. Also has call ins by the public.
9:45A - The announcement is being made at 10:30A at the Pan Pacific downtown with the Premier, Falcon, and the region’s Mayors.
Sphere: Related ContentI don’t want to jump the gun before any real details are released. Besides, as Keith Baldrey says in his report below, there hasn’t been any leaks so to speak - he’s more… connecting the dots. Have more tomorrow on this.
UPDATE: The announcement is at 10:30 AM. Check back here shortly after for full details and analysis.
Sphere: Related ContentAs you may have noted in some of the major media’s reporting over the 2008 Transportation Plan, TransLink is going to start refurbishments on some of the busiest Expo Line stations. The original Expo Line, from Waterfront to New Westminster, is almost 30 years old, and it’s age is quite apparent. Compared to the architectural award winning Millennium stations, the Expo stations are something of an eyesore. Not only do they feature a cookie-cutter layout, but the design, while reminiscent of Expo 86, hasn’t quite stood the test of time as well as Science World or Canada Place.
But, as I said, things are about to change. According to official timelines, TransLink is supposed to start construction to refurbish both Broadway and Main St. stations this year, with completion dates near the end of 2009. TransLink also has major plans underway for Metrotown, and minor plans for Surrey Central and Edmonds.
This type of information isn’t exactly widely available, partially the media’s fault, and much more a larger problem of poor communications by TransLink to the community (they really should hire someone to do that considering it would definitely boost their rep quite a bit). However, I wanted to share what I’ve learnt the plans are and what the current schedule is. I think it will be interesting to look back at this post as the months go by to see if the new TransLink still suffers from “TransLink time”.
Broadway Station
Timeline
Conceptual Designs
Main St. Station
Note: The East side upgrades are to progress independently and before upgrades to the West side
Timeline
East side
West side
Conceptual Design
I put together this little animated GIF the other day. I think it’s pretty darn cool. I’d like to make a version incorporating the provincial government of the time, which would relate to certain periods seeing a lot of expansion versus stagnate times. Click on the version below for the full size.
