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Or “green shifting” as the Liberals would have you say. As you may recall, I support the notion of a revenue neutral carbon tax. Carbon needs a price for the market to react and engage the notion of pollution in a way it currently does not. However, that does not mean that a carbon tax is a tax grab. If the new revenue from a carbon tax is offset by lower income taxes, then I really don’t see what everyone in BC is all screwballing over. Especially when it will only increase your average gas bill by $46 per year! 

In any case, the Liberals plan seems to look out for all potentially affected groups, at least from my perspective, in a way that Gordon Campbell’s plan doesn’t. And it’s showing. Despite Harper spouting off like an idea and saying a carbon tax would “screw all Canadians“, a new survey just goes to show that just because some guy is the leader of your country does not mean he represents a major portion of the population. 

A Canadian Press survey asked this to 1000 Canadians:

The Liberals are calling their policy A Green Shift. The main elements are putting a tax on carbon or greenhouse-gas emissions, and using the money raised by this tax to reduce income and other taxes, to provide financial support for those less well off and to invest in green technologies. The tax increases will be phased in over four years and will not apply to gasoline. Based on this description, would you say this is a policy you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose.

And heck, it turns out 47% of those polled liked the idea. 39% were opposed. Regardless of how you read into these numbers, it just goes to show that Canadians still think the environment is a major issue in this country, clearly aren’t happy with how the Conservatives have handled the problems we are facing with climate change, and are able to actually grasp the concept of a revenue neutral carbon tax - more than can be said for Stephen Harper. 

Now it’s time for Harper to put his mouth where his beliefs are and face off with Dion in a serious debate about the idea of a carbon tax. Canada certainly deserves nothing less. 

And in other news, the scientist that first told the US Congress about global warming recommended America adopt a carbon tax!

“We have to level with the public that there has to be a price on carbon emissions,” Hansen said. “That is the only way we are going to begin to move toward a carbon free economy.”

Hansen said urgent action was needed to cut carbon dioxide emissions that are warming the globe and are already causing arctic ice to melt. He said world leaders had only one or two years to act before the Earth reaches a “tipping point” with major consequences to the global climate and species survival.

“We have reached an emergency situation,” Hansen said.

He said the government should not keep the proceeds from any carbon tax, but refund the money to taxpayers to help them pay for more fuel efficient technology.

Would someone please tell me what all this ridiculous raucous over the carbon tax is about?!

The escalating carbon tax is a mere 2.4 cents to begin with. That is absolutely nothing compared to the market’s 10 cent increase over a week! People are looking for someone to blame for the high gas prices and the media has jumped onto Campbell and his carbon tax.

I’m not trying to support them - the Liberals have done a lot of things wrong in their time. But the NDP are by no means are a reasonable alternative, and they are simply playing into people’s fears - no different than the federal Tories policies! That’s politicking at its highest!

At least Campbell is doing something. The point is that the carbon tax will fund the provision of alternatives. Yes, alternatives should be happening much sooner, and yes, we’ve had a general gas tax for how many years? And yes, there will be regional discrepancies. But to call off a progressive climate change and taxation policy like the carbon tax because gas prices are getting higher is absolutely ridiculous and illogical - especially when the tax itself will only cost 2.4 cents a litre!

Which, according to calculations will only come out to $46 annually in carbon tax for a year’s worth of fill ups for a family of four’s van. That’s less than one fill up a year. 

So really people, put the friggin’ tax into perspective. 

Not to mention, low income British Columbians will receive an annual Climate Action Credit of $100/adult and $30/child. Which works out well for them, since presumably they’d be taking the bus anyways - which is much cheaper than driving will ever be. That could get them one month’s transit pass - certainly a better choice than one tank fill up!

If there is one certainty about the current rise in gas prices, it is that it will not continue forever.

Sooner or later, global demand for oil will come more into balance with its supply, and prices will fall. [The Province]

And, I’m sorry, but the reality is, gas prices are not going to go down. They may fluctuate, but prices will continue, over the long term to go up. 

Think about the demand that’s coming from India and Asia. Think about how much resources our “North American” lifestyles use up. Considering neither of these groups is likely to demand anything less anytime soon, demand will not cease. 

The concept of peak oil is that as soon as we have passed the midpoint in global oil resources, prices will skyrocket. That is because, from that point on, we will never have enough supply to meet the demand. 

So, you think $1.50 is bad? Are you fearing the $2 mark predicted to arrive by 2012? 

Well, consider this. Peak oil is estimated to hit between 2010 to 2013. Then the shit will hit the fan because you ain’t seen nothing yet. Prices will zoom to numbers never before imagined possible.

So please, stop trying to find someone or something to blame. Please stop trying to find some way of sustaining this unsustainable way of life. 

Think positively for once and coming up with creative solutions to this big problem: electric vehicles, or moving closer to work, or bringing the bike out of the garage, or buying locally grown food.

And of course, support the politicians who will help facilitate this transition towards a sustainable way of life. 

Mark Jaccard, leading climate change advisor to the Premier, wrote an oped in the Sun today, where he defended the government’s carbon tax policy - a policy that he has personally pushed for years. 

It gets fun though when he responds to Carole James’ position against the tax:

Third, opposition politicians may mislead the public for their own political ends. Carole James, leader of the B.C. New Democratic Party, wrote in The Sun last week that the carbon tax is unfair and that she would exempt from the tax any person or industry complaining loudly enough, replacing the tax with ineffective subsidies. This saddens me. An honest politician would be telling British Columbians that a carbon tax is essential. Some people will have higher costs no matter where they live and to pretend that one can design a tax so that everyone is treated identically is disingenuous. Our carbon-funded tax cuts will benefit low-income British Columbians, even those living in colder regions.

Climate policy experts told B.C.’s NDP government throughout the 1990s that a carbon tax was essential to reduce emissions. During this time, social democratic governments in Scandinavia and the United Kingdom took the honest and courageous move of implementing carbon taxes. Our NDP government instead used taxpayers’ money to provide subsidies and information programs that had no effect on emissions — just what they were told would happen.

Given these obstacles to politicians doing the right thing, my colleagues at the Global Energy Assessment were surprised by B.C.’s carbon tax — the first in North America. They wanted to know more about our “honest and courageous” political leaders. So I told them about Gordon Campbell, Carole Taylor and Barry Penner. I stayed quiet about Carole James.

So, basically, he says:

We told you what to do in the 90’s, you didn’t listen to us, now you are in opposition, so… STFU! 

Rock on Jaccard!

(Please note, that I am in no way a BC Liberal. It’s just, how can you not want to poke the ineffective NDP when they are down and seemingly never going to get back on their feet?!)

Just as the media has been speculating for months, Carole Taylor has introduced a revenue neutral carbon tax for BC. We are the second province in Canada, following Quebec, to introduce the tax as an method of curbing climate change.

Here’s the deets:

Carbon Tax

A carbon tax will be introduced on all fossil fuels starting July 1st. It will increase over time. The rate begins at $10 per tonne of carbon emissions. It will generate $1.85 billion over three years.

For example, the cost works out to be 2.41 cents per litre of gas, and 2.2 cents per litre of diesel.

Legislation will be developed requiring the government to show how the carbon tax funds are being used to fight climate change.

Revenue Neutrality

Every BC resident will receive a $100 dividend in June aimed at helping them to adopt greener lifestyles before the carbon tax is introduced.

Low income households will receive a new Climate Action Credit quarterly, amounting to $100 per adult and $30 per child.

Furthermore, the bottom two personal income tax rates, the general corporate income tax rate, and the small business tax rate will all be reduced to offset the carbon tax revenues.

General Spending

• Health care spending is up $2.9 billion over three years
• K-12 education spending is up $144 million over three years
• $104 million over four years will go towards reducing homelessness
• $78 million over four years will go towards keeping emergency shelters open 24 hours

Surplus?

The forecasted surplus for this year is $50 million, a far cry from last year’s $2 billion.

I haven’t ever done this, but with a recent increase in readership, I thought I may as well try.

You’ve seen the plan. You’ve viewed the news reports.

Now, what do you think?

There’s a poll below, and I’m leaving this posts comments wide open. It’s a free for all.

What are your concerns? Does the plan meet your needs? How will this effect you? What bumps in the road do you predict?

If you have anything to say, say it!

Premier Gordon Campbell put our money where his mouth is and the proposal is quite satisfying. 9 new RapidBus lines, 3 new Rapid Transit lines, 1500 new clean buses across the province, a commitment to turnstiles and a smart card system. Overall, it is quite huge, comparable in fact to a 2020 transportation plan set out in Ontario by Dalton McGuinty’s government, which also included a vast expansion of transit services. We should all be commending the provincial government for taking this necessary step - certainly a far more balanced situation than just getting Gateway.

However, as always the devil is in the details, and it’s the details that are lacking in the plan.

Funding

For example, the provincial government is not spending $14 billion. Only $11.1 billion is actual new money, and of that, the province is only putting in $4.75 billion - over the next 12 years. One could argue they aren’t really pulling their fair share of a plan they have initiated.

How’s the rest going to be paid? Well, Campbell is relying on Harper putting in a share of $3.1 billion - something the federal government has yet to do with Ontario transportation plan that also required a 1/3 share from Ottawa.

Then, the estimates are that TransLink will have to put in almost $2.75 billion. The agency currently has a surplus fund of $400 million - something that used to sound like a lot; not so much anymore. TransLink’s only way of raising any money is through a combination of increased fares, property taxes, and gas taxes. Over the course of 12 years, that means TransLink needs to raise an additional $230 million. The recent fare increase raised an additional

Seems likely that the $5 three zone fare is going up some more soon. Or maybe they’ll move forward on pursuing possible money from transit oriented development near stations…

In other areas of the province, municipalities will be throwing in about $500 million as well.

But don’t forget the private corporations. As we’ve already seen with the Golden Ears Bridge and the Canada Line, the provincial government is keen on having private corporations foot part of the bill as well. Kevin Falcon has already stated that even smaller projects, like the estimate $100 million it will cost to install turnstiles, will be handled by a private corporation through a P3.

Timeline

Compared to the past, when the Lower Mainland received 1 rapid transit line per decade, we are now getting three in 10 years. A good increase for sure.

But, what you have to realize is that many of these routes should have already been built. So in fact, we are playing catch up - and with this plan, the lines will continue to be 5-10 years away. Is that fast enough to relieve the congestion we have already? How much transit demand will there be that far away in the future? What intermediate steps will be taken to fix the situation in the meantime?

The fact remains, we need these rapid transit expansions today. What lines will we be needing by 2020, when the current extensions are just finishing?

Furthermore, there has been no estimate at all for the RapidBus BC system. Obviously, the Highway 1 route won’t be possible until the Port Mann is expanded - potentially completed by 2013.

The whole point of using buses is that they are a low cost option that can be launched in under a year. Whether these advantages are adopted has yet to be seen. It would be a very big shame if the routes took a number of years to implement, especially since we could start right now and get many of them in place immediately.

Routing

One of the things I find most interesting about the Rapid Transit and RapidBus plans is their routes. Frankly, it’s not all that surprising to see the UBC Line where it is, and the same goes to a lesser degree with the Evergreen Line. However, having the Province decide something like a possible extension of the Expo Line in Surrey doesn’t seem like the best choice to be made.

The Province doesn’t have a full grasp on the area first of all. I mean, just looking at where they’ve proposed it makes no sense at all. It seems like it attempts to get a station close to Guildford, even though it’s obvious that it’s quite a few blocks away from the mall no matter what. Then, it goes southeast towards 88th and Fraser, cutting right through a neighbourhood. I personally think that the current terminus is the best situation, but if they are going to extend it into Surrey further, it should just continue directly down Fraser Highway, and should end in an area where a large transit exchange and park and ride could be built - potentially at Fraser and 168th St.

I also found it amusing that the Province promotes RapidBus on routes that already have or are soon getting a B-Line: i.e. the Hastings to SFU route and the Joyce to UBC route via 41st. TransLink has been planning these for a while, and put the money in this year to create these B-Lines. What’s going on? Where is there overlap? Is it going to be a B-Line or a RapidBus BC route?

Same thing goes with the planned King George Busway by TransLink that has been adopted by the Province.

You’d also notice the White Rock to Richmond route - which is already a semi premium express coach route by TransLink.

What’s going on? Why is there overlap? What’s with the lack of coordination?

Where’s TransLink in this?

With this plan, what is the new role of TransLink. It seems that not only has the Province literally chosen the routes, timelines, and technologies for future rapid transit - not just rail based, but road based as well! Why should TransLink pursue a new regional transportation strategy if the Province is just going to institute a plan from the higher ups? Is TransLink simply going to be the agency that draw up the feeder routes? Is TransLink just the scapegoat of the Province - the operator, per say, that gets all the rider’s complaints?

The Reality of Governments and Plans

First off, we must understand that this is not so much a plan as it is a vision. That’s because, well, the money, past the first phase, is not at all guaranteed, and the government that’s in office in 2012 or 2017 could easily just scrap this plan altogether.

Take a look at what the Campbell government did to the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Clark government for the Millennium Line. That was a government agreement that the province would provide the funding to complete the rapid transit line, following a detailed routing and technology analysis. Once the NDP got booted out in 2001, whatever happened to that Memorandum of Understanding? Gordon Campbell through it out with the outgoing government.

Plans change and evolve so much these days that it’s very difficult to look at the maps and routes as something concrete - that is until funding is secured and the real work begins. Until then, this is nothing more than a vision.

Thankfully, however, we will soon see what amount of money the province is truly committed to when they release the February budget. At that time, we will find out what is included and is actually going to happen in the short term.

Wishful thinking

The plan is great. But there are definite concerns and it’s unfortunate that they released this plan without much of any coordination with TransLink or the municipalities. We are taking a huge step forward with this initiative - I just wished it happened faster and it looked out farther into the future.

Maybe that’s for my generation to plan once Campbell retires. But with more visions like these, I don’t think he’s going to leave the Premier’s office anytime soon. And maybe that’s a good thing. Hey, it worked out alright for transit in Metro Vancouver…

These are all taken from the Provincial Transit Plan

Rapid Transit

• They are including the Canada Line under the Plan. Completion is set for 2009.
• $1.4 billion for the Evergreen Line by 2014.
• $2.8 billion for the UBC Line from Broadway to UBC by 2020
• $3.1 billion to double capacity on the Expo Line - major improvements at stations starting 2009, and 6km extension in Surrey by 2020. Station improvements include:
  • Lengthening platforms to handle 6 car trains
  • Vehicle storage depots
  • Maintenance facilities
  • Adjacent transit exchanges
• $1 billion for new rail cars

RapidBusBC

• Frequent, reliable service with regular intervals
• Express service with few or no stops
• Priority movement in traffic by dedicated/HOV lanes, signal priority, and queue jumping
• Contemporary, conveniently located bus stations with nearby amenities
• Seamless integration with other transit options and coordination with cycling and walking infrastructure
• Effective security measures
• 9 lines across BC
  • Westbank to UBC Okanagan in the central Okanagan
  • Douglas Street in downtown Victoria to Langford on the West Shore
  • Highway 1, connecting Lougheed Station to exchanges in Surrey and Langley across the Port Mann Bridge
  • Hastings Street from downtown Vancouver to SFU
  • 41st Ave from the Canada Line to UBC
  • Highway 99 from White Rock to the Canada Line in Richmond
  • King George Hwy from Surrey Centre south to White Rock
  • Fraser Hwy connecting Langley to the Expo Line in Surrey
  • Highway 7 from the Evergreen Line in Coquitlam across the new Golden Ears Bridge

Buses

• $1.6 billion in 1,500 new clean energy buses
• Clean technologies include
  • Hydrogen
  • Hybrid
  • Electric
  • Natural Gas
  • Low emissions diesel
• Customized sizes and types of buses
  • Community shuttles
  • Custom transit
  • Para transit
  • Articulated and double decker buses
  • Conventional buses

Cycling

• 1000 new bike lockers at key transit locations by 2020
• Comprehensive cycling strategy to be released in the next few months to complement the Provincial Transit Plan

Security

• Installing electronic gates and closed-circuit cameras at rapid transit stations
• Launching a smart card system for rapid transit and buses that users can reload at vending machines or on the Internet
• Taking action against people who do not pay fares with on-the-spot fines and other measures
• Increasing security personnel in and around rapid transit stations
• Improving safety for bus drivers

10:55A - That’s it! Stay tuned for more details and analysis later. Here’s the province’s site on the plan. Here’s a detailed PDF.

10:49A - $1.2 billion for the RapidBus BC systems. $1.6 billion for 1,500 new, clean energy buses and related infrastructure

10:48A - $10.3 billion for 4 new rapid transit lines in Metro Vancouver. Evergreen Line, UBC Line, upgraded Expo Line and Canada Line

10:46A - Province only committing $4.75 billion. Remainder to come from federal government, TransLink and local governments.

10:45A - Here’s the press release.

10:42A - New rapid bus system in BC. Talking about Gateway Transit. Separate lanes. Signal priority. Nice stations. Multi door entry. 1 in Kelowna, 1 in Victoria, 7 in Metro Vancouver.

10:41A - 600 buses for province. Double buses in Lower Mainland. 80% of transit riders take buses. Green buses.

10:40A - $14 billion!

10:39A - Going green. New technologies in transit every 7 years. 12 year plan to 2020.

10:38A - Global leader in transit. Require partnerships with other levels of government. Reaching 20% of usage.

10:37A - Here’s Gordon Campbell now.

10:36A - 90% of population in regional centres of the province.

10:35A - Kevin Falcon talking about climate change ghgs emission target reductions. Hybrid buses. Government fleets go green. Cycling program. Low speed vehicles.

10:33A - Langley Township, Richmond, Langley City, Port Moody, Surrey, Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows Mayors. Some MLAs too.

10:32A - Here it starts. Listen live on CKNW.

10:28A - The room is *full*! Many mayors here. Tons of press. Will start shortly.

10:18A - Here’s a leak on the Bill Good Show. $10 Billion. High capacity, low energy buses for Metro Vancouver. Improvements in security. Extra investments in Canada Line. Funding for Evergreen Line. Victoria and Kelowna also get money. Funded by P3s and taxes.

10:15A - Carole James is doing her best to play politics in a situation that is likely to push her completely out of view

10:10A - Expectations that Victoria and the Interior will be shortchanged at the announcement. The Island will not likely get the LRT or commuter rail it wants. More assumed to be a bus-only road.

10:07A - There are worries that the announcement won’t include money for bus expansion that is needed. Metro Vancouver is currently short hundreds of buses.

10:05A - Vaughn Palmer is estimating a $10 billion budget.

10:00A - Everyone is speculating an M-Line extension, Evergreen Line completion with reroute through Riverview, future SkyTrain extension to Langley, and extended HOV express buses. Could just be that everyone latched onto Keith Baldrey’s speculations though.

9:52A - They are discussing the external costs of driving a car on the Bill Good Show. A lot of seniors are against more taxes (surprise, surprise).

9:50A - CKNW’s Bill Good Show has a BEST spokesperson and Gord Price on to talk about the announcement. Also has call ins by the public.

9:45A - The announcement is being made at 10:30A at the Pan Pacific downtown with the Premier, Falcon, and the region’s Mayors.

I don’t want to jump the gun before any real details are released. Besides, as Keith Baldrey says in his report below, there hasn’t been any leaks so to speak - he’s more… connecting the dots. Have more tomorrow on this.

UPDATE: The announcement is at 10:30 AM. Check back here shortly after for full details and analysis.

Rafe Mair wrote an editorial for The Tyee, detailing the process by which TransLink has reverted back to provincial control. He also mentions several other projects whereby the Campbell government has superseded local interests. Interesting read.

This new TransLink board, all Campbell approved, without an elected person on it, will have the power to raise property taxes, buy and sell property, change property taxation classifications and run its own police force.

Here they are:

• Dale Parker, a businessman who’s business financially supports the Campbell crowd;
• Nancy Olewiler, an economist who serves as a Liberal appointee on BC Hydro’s board of directors;
• David Unrah, lawyer and businessman who serves on many boards of directors and, get this, is the corporate director of Canada Line Rapid Transit which is overseeing the construction of the RAV — oops! — Canada Line (A little conflict of interest here?);
• Jamie Bruce, an investment banker;
• Sarah Goodman, PR spokesperson for Weyerhouse;
• Robert Tribe, long time Executive Director of SNCF Lavalin, which makes buses and transit stuff (surely not another conflict of interest!);
• Cindy Chan Piper who has a consulting firm, is a member of Vancouver’s right wing Non-Partisan Association and is a vocal supporter of Sam Sullivan (Gosh! Not another conflict of interest!); and
• Skip Triplett, who has been an executive with BC Tel (now Telus), Xerox of Canada and the Steel Company of Canada.

There you have it folks. Nine members of the business community all approved in advance by Premier Campbell to represent the needs of two million Vancouverites…

… And what was the fundamental issue that triggered the American Revolution? Taxation without representation.

Well folks, George III is alive and well. He runs his fiefdom in a great big office in the parliament buildings in Victoria.