Analysis on the Provincial Transit Plan
Posted on January 14th, 2008 in environment, links, politics, transportation, vancouver |
Premier Gordon Campbell put our money where his mouth is and the proposal is quite satisfying. 9 new RapidBus lines, 3 new Rapid Transit lines, 1500 new clean buses across the province, a commitment to turnstiles and a smart card system. Overall, it is quite huge, comparable in fact to a 2020 transportation plan set out in Ontario by Dalton McGuinty’s government, which also included a vast expansion of transit services. We should all be commending the provincial government for taking this necessary step - certainly a far more balanced situation than just getting Gateway.
However, as always the devil is in the details, and it’s the details that are lacking in the plan.
Funding
For example, the provincial government is not spending $14 billion. Only $11.1 billion is actual new money, and of that, the province is only putting in $4.75 billion - over the next 12 years. One could argue they aren’t really pulling their fair share of a plan they have initiated.
How’s the rest going to be paid? Well, Campbell is relying on Harper putting in a share of $3.1 billion - something the federal government has yet to do with Ontario transportation plan that also required a 1/3 share from Ottawa.
Then, the estimates are that TransLink will have to put in almost $2.75 billion. The agency currently has a surplus fund of $400 million - something that used to sound like a lot; not so much anymore. TransLink’s only way of raising any money is through a combination of increased fares, property taxes, and gas taxes. Over the course of 12 years, that means TransLink needs to raise an additional $230 million. The recent fare increase raised an additional
Seems likely that the $5 three zone fare is going up some more soon. Or maybe they’ll move forward on pursuing possible money from transit oriented development near stations…
In other areas of the province, municipalities will be throwing in about $500 million as well.
But don’t forget the private corporations. As we’ve already seen with the Golden Ears Bridge and the Canada Line, the provincial government is keen on having private corporations foot part of the bill as well. Kevin Falcon has already stated that even smaller projects, like the estimate $100 million it will cost to install turnstiles, will be handled by a private corporation through a P3.
Timeline
Compared to the past, when the Lower Mainland received 1 rapid transit line per decade, we are now getting three in 10 years. A good increase for sure.
But, what you have to realize is that many of these routes should have already been built. So in fact, we are playing catch up - and with this plan, the lines will continue to be 5-10 years away. Is that fast enough to relieve the congestion we have already? How much transit demand will there be that far away in the future? What intermediate steps will be taken to fix the situation in the meantime?
The fact remains, we need these rapid transit expansions today. What lines will we be needing by 2020, when the current extensions are just finishing?
Furthermore, there has been no estimate at all for the RapidBus BC system. Obviously, the Highway 1 route won’t be possible until the Port Mann is expanded - potentially completed by 2013.
The whole point of using buses is that they are a low cost option that can be launched in under a year. Whether these advantages are adopted has yet to be seen. It would be a very big shame if the routes took a number of years to implement, especially since we could start right now and get many of them in place immediately.
Routing
One of the things I find most interesting about the Rapid Transit and RapidBus plans is their routes. Frankly, it’s not all that surprising to see the UBC Line where it is, and the same goes to a lesser degree with the Evergreen Line. However, having the Province decide something like a possible extension of the Expo Line in Surrey doesn’t seem like the best choice to be made.
The Province doesn’t have a full grasp on the area first of all. I mean, just looking at where they’ve proposed it makes no sense at all. It seems like it attempts to get a station close to Guildford, even though it’s obvious that it’s quite a few blocks away from the mall no matter what. Then, it goes southeast towards 88th and Fraser, cutting right through a neighbourhood. I personally think that the current terminus is the best situation, but if they are going to extend it into Surrey further, it should just continue directly down Fraser Highway, and should end in an area where a large transit exchange and park and ride could be built - potentially at Fraser and 168th St.
I also found it amusing that the Province promotes RapidBus on routes that already have or are soon getting a B-Line: i.e. the Hastings to SFU route and the Joyce to UBC route via 41st. TransLink has been planning these for a while, and put the money in this year to create these B-Lines. What’s going on? Where is there overlap? Is it going to be a B-Line or a RapidBus BC route?
Same thing goes with the planned King George Busway by TransLink that has been adopted by the Province.
You’d also notice the White Rock to Richmond route - which is already a semi premium express coach route by TransLink.
What’s going on? Why is there overlap? What’s with the lack of coordination?
Where’s TransLink in this?
With this plan, what is the new role of TransLink. It seems that not only has the Province literally chosen the routes, timelines, and technologies for future rapid transit - not just rail based, but road based as well! Why should TransLink pursue a new regional transportation strategy if the Province is just going to institute a plan from the higher ups? Is TransLink simply going to be the agency that draw up the feeder routes? Is TransLink just the scapegoat of the Province - the operator, per say, that gets all the rider’s complaints?
The Reality of Governments and Plans
First off, we must understand that this is not so much a plan as it is a vision. That’s because, well, the money, past the first phase, is not at all guaranteed, and the government that’s in office in 2012 or 2017 could easily just scrap this plan altogether.
Take a look at what the Campbell government did to the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Clark government for the Millennium Line. That was a government agreement that the province would provide the funding to complete the rapid transit line, following a detailed routing and technology analysis. Once the NDP got booted out in 2001, whatever happened to that Memorandum of Understanding? Gordon Campbell through it out with the outgoing government.
Plans change and evolve so much these days that it’s very difficult to look at the maps and routes as something concrete - that is until funding is secured and the real work begins. Until then, this is nothing more than a vision.
Thankfully, however, we will soon see what amount of money the province is truly committed to when they release the February budget. At that time, we will find out what is included and is actually going to happen in the short term.
Wishful thinking
The plan is great. But there are definite concerns and it’s unfortunate that they released this plan without much of any coordination with TransLink or the municipalities. We are taking a huge step forward with this initiative - I just wished it happened faster and it looked out farther into the future.
Maybe that’s for my generation to plan once Campbell retires. But with more visions like these, I don’t think he’s going to leave the Premier’s office anytime soon. And maybe that’s a good thing. Hey, it worked out alright for transit in Metro Vancouver…
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8 Responses
I agree with you on that last point, Paul, that at least if Campbell does stick around, we’ve got continuity. These initiatives are great, but the turnstile thing bothers me still and of course you can expect me to be disappointed with the Expo extension. That’s a lot of money for just condensing a 10-minute bus ride into maybe 4 minutes, not to mention what construction would do to congestion, what building an elevated track would do to the environment because there honestly isn’t that much room. LRT would be a better, much less invasive choice and they were going to put that in for the Evergreen Line (any word on that tech yet?). They could extend LRT all the way to Langley. That would solve some issues. I don’t know how fast LRT goes but at least it’s quiet and flexible.
Grade separated LRT speed is comparable to SkyTrain. Without grade separation, trains must operate at reduce speed.
I was hoping to see the Evergreen Line go ahead with Skytrain technology. Oh well.
Until there is a budget that commits hard dollars and is passed in the legislature, this is just a fantasy. If the Gateway Project goes ahead, not only does it undermine the ability to serve the Valley effectively with transit, it makes it even less likely the money will be there to expand transit quickly enough to meet demand and meet our greenhouse gas reduction targets.
As long as the province continues blowing big bucks on expensive, uneconomic systems like Skytrain, we will limit our ability to develop an extensive network like Portland. LRT is the way to go. Do the math.
When are we going to get people with transit expertise involved in developing an integrated system throughout the Lower Mainland. The experts are always on the sidelines or ignored. Instead, we get a mongrel system because politicians and business people are making the decisions.
They might as well be monkeys making decisions.
We really need to get together and make some noise about LRT. Rail for the Valley is doing a tremendous job, but obviously Surrey and Langley still need LRT and bus/rapid bus connections.
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.” - Margaret Mead
Beware of Ottawa’s experience. We had federal and provincial and municipal funding in place and even a signed contract to start construction and still our LRT project got cancelled. All it took was a municipal election and federal interference. Our rapid transit project has been set back for years, likely several years.
By the way, LRT is best for shorter trips within the urban area. They tend to be slower trains made even slower without an exclusive right of way. Don’t make people transfer from bus to LRT to Skytrain. If its feasible, extend your Skytrains further instead of adding transfers. Skytrains are a far better choice for longer distances. Remember Portland’s and Calgary’s LRT both provide direct to downtown service on mostly exclusive right of ways.
The one thing that I’m unsure of is: how much money is being put into drivers for these things? Are the pricetags quoted in the media for just the capital of new buses, or does it also cover X years of labour too?
And won’t a lot of these “new” buses just be replacing the “new” ones from ten years ago that will need to be removed from the roads in the next 5-10 years?
If these changes really get people out of cars and into transit, then awesome - I’m all for it. But I suspect that we won’t see a reduced gridlock, both on and off the buses by 2020. I pray for a day when I can get on the 3 Main bus at the Terminal Station between the hours of 3 and 8 pm without having to be passed by or sandwiched in it like so many sardines.
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