Politics


17
Jun 10

Down memory lane: Chretien and Romanow saved ’82 Constitution

I’ve been doing some research lately into Canadian politics in the Trudeau and Mulroney eras in preparation for a history course. While rummaging through the CBC Digital Archives (fantastic resource btw), I found two very interesting clips, especially considering the recent discussions around Liberal-NDP cooperation.

The first, I found particularly shocking. Chretien has always been known as a mastermind politician and is fondly remembered as the three-peat PM of modern Canada, but did you know he was an MP for decades before receiving the top job? He was among Trudeau’s right-hand men, and in the clip below, shows how pivotal he was to the passing of the 1982 Constitution Act and the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

The talks in 1981 were Trudeau’s third attempt to patriate the Constitution. Apparently, on the eve of the final night, Trudeau was confident that the talks would fail once again, and told Chretien that much. In the wee hours of the morning, then Justice Minister Chretien quickly worked with then Saskatchewan Attorney General Roy Romanow and then Ontario Attorney General Roy McMurtry to make a deal. The so-called “Kitchen Accord” devised that night led to an agreement the following morning among nine provinces – an agreement which formed the basis of the Constitution and Charter.

This willingness to cooperate and compromise between Chretien and Romanow should not be overlooked. The fact that they alone saved the talks and gave us the Constitution is a testament to their collective power. This is interesting indeed considering rumours that they are the ones leading the discussions for Liberal-NDP cooperation.

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The second clip is from the 1968 Leader’s Debates; the first televised in fact. The debate consisted of four leaders: the Liberal’s Trudeau, the Progressive Conservatives’ Robert Stanfield, the NDP’s Tommy Douglas, and the Ralliement créditiste’s (Quebec Social Credit party) Réal Caouette. They are asked a question about the validity and effect of so many federal parties and of the instability of minority governments. In this clip below, the famed Tommy Douglas predicts that someday in the future, the right and left in Canada will consolidate back into two main parties. Could Douglas have very well supported a Liberal-NDP merger, especially in light of the success of the “unite the right” movement of the 90′s?

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8
Jun 10

The Liberal Democrats: it’s doable, so let’s do it

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Compromise and cooperation: two words heard far too rarely from the House of Commons.

In 2008, spurred on by a literal financial death sentence by the Conservatives, the Liberals and the NDP, supported by the Bloc Québecois and the Greens, quickly mobilized to form a progressive alternative government to the Tories. Their working plan for Parliament emphasized strategic economic stimulus in the form of investments in infrastructure, social services, education, and green energy. Yet, within the course of one week, thanks to the brilliant spinning of the Conservative war room, Canadians soon equated the word “coalition” with “the socialists and the separatists”. Parties and MPs working together to accomplish the goals of the majority of Canadians died.

And yet, here again, an opportunity has resurfaced. The circumstances are just as political as before. The Liberals, even despite dumping the leader they never quite supported, are now polling at numbers even lower than when Mr. Dion was at the helm! Realizing that the downward spiral of the Liberal party may very well be a long term trend, influential members from its left-wing faction are mobilizing their supporters to push a coalition, or even a possible merger, with the NDP.

And why not? Regardless of the self-concerning reasons driving this new backroom push, all progressive Canadians should be supportive of this effort. We represent 60% of the population, yet do not retain anywhere close to a majority within Parliament. This is due, in part, to the lack of a proportional voting system, but also a result of having four left wing parties splitting the vote.

The right once had similar problems. Brian Mulroney’s wide alliance of regional conservative factions in Canada began to splinter following the failure of the Charlottetown and Meech Lake Accords. Quebec nationalists who had supported the Progressive Conservatives in an attempt to gain major concessions in Quebec’s designed entry into the Constitution suffered a major blow when Meech Lake died. Meanwhile, westerners were increasingly fed up with the federal government’s wooing of Quebec, feeling their demands and needs were being neglected in return. The Quebecers, now more riled than ever to separate from Canada, formed the Bloc Québecois. The westerners, led by Preston Manning, formed the Reform Party under the tagline, “The West Wants In”.

In the election of 1993, suffering from the split of their party, as well as significant backlash from the economic recession and the newly introduced GST, the Progressive Conservatives, now led by a recently-installed Kim Campbell, was reduced from 211 to 2 seats in the House of Commons. The party never recovered.

In the following elections of 1997 and 2000, the right suffered from the splitting of their vote. It has been argued that the Liberals gained their support base of Ontario due to the vote splitting between the Progressive Conservatives and the Alliance (formerly Reform) – the province typically voted Conservative in provincial elections. When Stephen Harper won the leadership of the Alliance, he quickly moved to unite the right, and in 2003 the Conservative Party of Canada was formed.

The new alliance between blue tories from the Alliance (social and economic conservatives) and red tories from the PCs (social progressives and economic conservatives) was, and remains, tense. Many former PCs moved to the Liberals, contributing in part to that party’s shift to the right. Harper’s a magnificent tactician and this explains why he runs his party primarily from the centre-right, but every now and again implements or proposes some radically right-wing policy, such as the abortion exemption from third world maternal healthcare initiatives, to appease his former Alliance faction.

The Liberals are also a party of factions, going right back to their historic roots as a joint effort between the reformers of Lower and Upper Canada. This alliance between French and English Canada is the primary source of conflict within the Liberals. It has been remarked that there is a political hot potato between leaders emerging from either Toronto or Montreal. Pearson – Trudeau – Turner – Chretien – Martin – Dion – Ignatieff; it goes back and forth. If you look at the historic trends, it seems as if the Liberals succeeded the most when led by a Quebecer and failed the most when led by a Toronto elitist.

From the perspective of a British Columbian, the inherent elitism of the Toronto faction is quite apparent. I once attended a couple Liberal events and they were filled primarily by old white men, the kind I imagine rule the backrooms of the party in Ontario. Toronto has a historic reputation for being the centre of the universe, a sentiment well replicated within the Liberal party. The Toronto elitists are hard-headed, full of pride and resentment, arrogant to the max, and believe quite ardently that the Liberals are the natural governing party of Canada. They are the ones who have pushed for neo-liberal economic policies of the 90′s, for better or for worse.

Meanwhile, the Quebec faction is culturally quite different. I think it stems from the historic identity of Quebecers. Quebec, as the colony of New France, was never a significant economic or political force. It was one of the smallest settlements in the New World and relied heavily on support and trade with the First Nations. Quickly, colonial ideals fell by the wayside and years of mere subsistence led to greater integration with the Aboriginals. The coureurs de bois who lived among the First Nations would eventually lead to the Métis people. Once Quebec was taken over by Britain, it remained a small, neglected cultural enclave surrounded by the increasing influence and of Upper Canada. Quebecers were never one to tout amongst their neighbours or to seek significant riches, and were willing to work with others to ensure the continuation of their unique way of life.

Currently, the forces of the Liberal party that are initiating these discussions with the NDP are from the Quebec faction. Compromise and cooperation to retain their identity and ideals – sounds right up their alley eh? The major opponents are the Toronto elites, proclaiming a betrayal to the history of the party.

To that I would argue that one needs to put one’s country before one’s party. I understand that there are many vested interests in both parties and with any change, some will win while others will lose. Right now though, it’s Canada that’s losing. We have suffered six years of inaction and setbacks thanks to Harper’s Conservatives.

Where’s the progress on climate change? Where’s the progress on a national housing strategy or a national transit strategy? Where’s the progress on universal child care or the future sustainability of our healthcare and pension systems? What about post-secondary education, green energy, or the arts and culture sector? What about the ongoing inequities of Aboriginals, both on and off-reserve? What about trade expansion with the growing BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India, and China – or Mexico or South Africa?

Harper has been coasting off the record of progress from previous administrations. With a renewed sense of ourselves and our place in the world following the Vancouver 2010 Olympics, I believe Canadians are ready and poised to take an even greater leadership position on the world stage. We have great success stories to share with the world, but we cannot become complacent. There are far too many ongoing national issues to confront before we start proclaiming Canada to be the “Best Place on Earth”. We’ve going something good going here, but there’s still much work to be done – work that will only be undertaken by a progressive federal government.

Perhaps it’s because I’m still relatively young and optimistic that I believe politicians should work together to achieve common goals. When over 40% of the population doesn’t vote in an election, I think it’s a tell tale sign that the status quo isn’t working out too well. I know many people from my generation that believe that by working collaboratively we can change the world for the better. The lack of this philosophy being reflected in our federal political system could very well explain the disinterest young Canadians feel towards Parliament. A bold, renewed left is just what the doctor ordered to cure this malaise.

Progressives in Canada have a unique opportunity in front of them, the type of which only comes around once in a blue, or reddish orange, moon. We have a chance for progressives, regardless of historical affiliations or personal partiality, to work together to regain an element of influence over the course of this country’s future. By working in unison, rather than in competition, Stephen Harper will no longer be able to pit us against one another and continue his slow transformation of Canada and its place in the world. Will there be disagreements along the way? Of course there will, but at every disagreement, there’s also a chance for compromise and debate. Consensus may not always be built, but in doing so, we fabricate a better understanding of the challenges facing us and the solutions that are on the table.

This is a chance to make history. Let us seize it. Bring on the Green Liberal Democrats!


3
May 10

How do Canadians get to work? [stats]

Inspired by this little ditty on Infrastructurist

… I decided to make a Canadian version. All the data is from the Stats Can 2006 Census.

What I found particularly interesting is how consistent the commuting trends are across the entire country. The comparison to America is fascinating, where New York, San Francisco, and Washington D.C. all pulled in amazing transit numbers, while cities like Atlanta, L.A., and Houston were car dominated cities. There are no such fluctuations in Canada’s six largest cities.

Toronto leads the pack in transit ridership – amazing, considering how old and poorly maintained their subway system is. Ottawa pulls in huge numbers as well, especially as the backbone of its network is bus rapid transit. I was quite surprised that Calgary doesn’t have a better transit percentage, as it is consistently rated as one of the best light rail systems in North America. Edmonton had the highest driving percentage, which is understandable though as their transit system hasn’t really expanded since it was first built in the 80′s.

What the numbers really reveal to me though is the untapped potential of our cities and the need for a coordinated, national “Big City” strategy.

We are an urban nation and will continue to be increasingly so. Our cities have become a beacon to the world, symbolizing our national commitment to peaceful diversity and long term livability. In these concrete jungles, people from around the world mix and mingle over work, school, and yes, hockey. It is through interaction that ideas are shared, businesses are created, and our collective human bonds are strengthened. Undoubtedly, cities are the economic engines of this country and have enormous potential to lead us into a profoundly prosperous future. For these reasons alone, we should be investing far more as a nation in our cities.

However, there is yet another argument to be made for our cities. Livable, compact, and green urban centres are one of the most significant solutions to climate change. Cities preserve land from sprawl, they are the most efficient means of living, and enable people to thrive car-free. Overwhelmingly, the majority of Metro Vancouver’s emissions come from transportation and buildings. All other greenhouse gases are just a tiny fraction of the equation. Solve our cities’ emissions, and we’ve solved half the climate crisis.

It’s actually quite simple to do. Transportation infrastructure shapes the urban form. Build roads and freeways, you get suburban strip malls, parking lots, and single-family homes. Build streetcars, you get Main Streets, apartments, and small bustling communities. Build subways, you get towering skyscrapers of concrete and glass, unparalleled diversity of people and shops, and a world where the pedestrian rules the road.

In Vancouver, our SkyTrain network has stimulated development across its spine, creating car-free urban villages at nearly every stop. However, the network is only half complete, and until the rest of the suburbs receive rail connections to that system, the car dominated lifestyle will continue. This case scenario can be replicated across the country.

What Canada needs is a strong understanding that our national future is tied to the wellbeing of our cities, and that we must make a solid commitment to financially reinvest in their economic, social, and environmental potential.

If I were the Prime Minister, or the leader of any federal party, I would make a commitment to partner with the provinces and big cities to collaboratively invest billions to build out the rapid transit networks of Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Calgary, and Edmonton – all within the next 10 years. Tied to that money, I would ensure there was a regional growth framework to encourage private investment along these networks. Within that growth framework, there would be a national commitment to aggressive green building standards to ensure that all new construction is efficient and sustainable in the long term. Additionally, I would ensure that affordable housing units – subsidized housing at various rates for various types of people and families – were built at major stops along these new routes.

In doing so, our cities would see remarkable economic stimulation as long term infrastructure investments are made to carry them forward into the future. Moreover, greenhouse gas emissions would be slashed by more than 50%, new affordable housing options would be available to help combat the increasing inequities that are limiting the human capital potential of our cities, more people from different backgrounds would interact as they move about in trains instead of cars, and there would be an absolute explosion in the creative and knowledge-based economic industries.

In short, it would revolutionize Canada into one of the greenest, most diverse and prosperous countries in the world.

I think that is certainly a goal worth striving for. And it all starts with rapid transit.


20
Apr 10

Why Light Rail is not appropriate for Broadway

The past couple years, there has been an increasingly vocal group of transit advocates pushing for Light Rail, or LRT, to be built along Broadway. Generally speaking, these individuals cite cheaper costs (in comparison to SkyTrain), as well as a more appropriate human scale, as advantages of that system. I have been a proponent of LRT in Surrey and the South Fraser region for exactly those same reasons. However, the nature of the urban landscape along Broadway is drastically different from the eastern suburbs – a factor that I believe should preclude LRT from being an appropriate rapid transit option for the corridor.

SkyTrain set the bar high

To begin, any form of rapid transit expansion in the region must be compared to our existing SkyTrain system. All things considered, it has proven to be a remarkable people mover and sets the bar high for all other mid-sized city transit systems. To Metro Vancouverites, SkyTrain is synonymous with frequency, reliability and speed.

Due in part to its automated nature, SkyTrain is operated at consistently high frequencies throughout the day, allowing customers to ditch the schedule one expects with a bus. Customers know, and can expect, that a train will arrive within no later than five minutes – anytime of the day. Additionally, SkyTrain control can easily add more trains (or remove them), allowing for great flexibility to deal with crowds during rush hour or hockey games (or the Olympics!).

Thanks to its dedicated guideway, SkyTrain is also highly reliable. Sure, sometimes someone or something falls on the tracks and triggers the emergency stop, putting the system on hold. And people get annoyed and bitchy. But that is primarily because SkyTrain is so damn reliable we are used to not having to slow down or stop along the route. This reliability factor enables people to schedule their travel literally right down to the minute – certainly not something one expects from buses.

Also due to its separated route above and below ground, SkyTrain has the ability to reach very high speeds. There’s nothing more exciting for a regular transit rider, or a young kid on their first ever ride, to see the train zooming past cars on Stewardson Way or Terminal Ave. During rush hour, SkyTrain is usually faster than cars at reaching certain destinations in the region.

Those three factors – frequency, reliability, and speed – are the barometers to which we must measure other rapid transit extensions’ success. As I said before, SkyTrain has set the bar high, and anything less will be decried as a failure. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at LRT on Broadway.

Light Rail on Broadway?

Broadway is the second-largest employment centre in the province, with as many workers as the entire population of Richmond, and is one of the busiest streets in the region. Its right-of-way cannot be expanded and has a capacity of six lanes. Typically, light rail systems feature their own dedicated lane along streets. This would mean the removal of two lanes from its current capacity. Translation: Broadway is left either with only one through lane in each direction (not acceptable due to required emergency vehicle access), or no street parking. Removal of the street parking would never happen because Broadway merchants would be up in arms as soon as it was proposed, and the City would lose a valuable source of revenue generating income.

Like most Vancouver roadways, Broadway features a compact street grid, with blocks every 170 metres – a source of frequent go-go-stop as pedestrians and cyclists halt traffic to cross the street. This is a major problem for LRT. Just as cars are slowed down due to an unsynchronized signal system in constant interruption from pedestrians, so too will Light Rail. Translation: there will be minimal, if any, improvement in speed along the route. And if it’s not moving appreciably faster than a bus, how can it even be called “rapid transit”?

In some cities, LRT runs in a dedicated railway route, much like SkyTrain does. In others, LRT runs down the middle or the side of roadways. With the dedicated route option, LRT can achieve higher speeds and is much more reliable. As LRT becomes more mixed with traffic and the street, speeds decrease, as does reliability. I’ve experienced this in both Calgary and Portland on their respective Light Rail systems. Outside the core, the train whisks alongside traffic, but as soon as it reaches the downtown, everything slows to a crawl and it feels like forever to move just three blocks. This is one reason why Calgary is now exploring the construction of a downtown transit tunnel, to give its system a dedicated space where it doesn’t have to interface with traffic lights, pedestrians, cyclists, or cars. On Broadway, LRT would be running along a street the entire way, and be forced to run both slowly and unreliably for most of the route (expect perhaps once the Endowment Lands were hit).

In terms of frequency, very few North American rail systems arrive as often as the 99 B-Line currently does. That route runs more often than the Millennium Line at times, and for good reason – there’s very high demand! However, as has been reported in the past, the frequencies of the B-Line have gotten to the point where adding any more buses would actually slow down the route! Light Rail cannot appreciably improve the frequencies along Broadway, and while SkyTrain would be able to, it wouldn’t be by too much.

In conclusion

Today, we currently have a B-Line that is frequent, fairly reliable, but has reached its capacity and is far too slow. LRT along Broadway wouldn’t be anymore frequent, just as slow, not much more reliable, but would have a slightly higher capacity. Which is a great short term upgrade, but unfortunately, Light Rail is actually quite expensive in comparison to buses. Building Light Rail along Broadway would cost at least 2/3 the price of SkyTrain, and would hit a pricetag in the billions. For all that money, the route’s only improvement would be a slightly higher capacity. Seems like a foolish use of our tax dollars to me.

If we are going to shell out billions of dollars to build rapid transit along Broadway, we may as well do it right, and gain appreciable improvements to the route. A SkyTrain extension would maintain or improve upon the already high frequencies, would carry far more people (with an easy long term capacity upgrading mechanism called more trains), would cut travel time in half, remove the existing transfer at Commercial-Broadway and provide a seamless ride from UBC to Coquitlam City Centre, as well as provide a secondary option for transit riders to access downtown (the Canada Line, in addition to the Expo Line, which would relieve congestion at Commercial-Broadway station).

Light Rail is a great transit option for many areas, such as the suburbs or in smaller cities with less demand. However, it’s time to quit joking ourselves and face the facts – SkyTrain is the only real answer for rapid transit on Broadway.


20
Apr 10

EKOS poll shows the way forward for federal parties

A new EKOS federal poll was recently released, revealing some very interesting data about the voting intentions of the public. Here’s my analysis:

51.8% of voters under 25 believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. This remains consistent at 51.4% of 25-44 year olds, but drops to 46.7% for 45-64 year olds, and 38.3% for over 65. I suspect this has to do primarily with environmental policy, something younger generations care passionately about.

Those with more education believe more strongly the country is headed in the wrong direction. Only 44% of high schoolers think so, a number which rises to 54.3% for those with university education.

The other interesting part here is that undecided voters overwhelmingly believe the country is headed in the wrong direction (75.3%). Does this have to do with centre-left voters who just don’t know who to vote for among the three centre-left parties?

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The Conservative base remains in Alberta, with almost 60% support in that province. They also poll strongly in the Maritimes and the Prairies, but do the worst in Quebec. Following the Coalition Crisis and separatist name calling Harper threw around, it’s not at all surprising that the Tories have lost la belle province.

The Liberal base remains Ontario and the Maritimes, both hovering at 36%, and they do the worst in Alberta (14%). The NDP don’t poll well outside of BC and the Prairies, where they receive about 24%. The Bloc still controls Quebec at 34%, with the Liberals polling in second place with 24% of the votes.

Interestingly, the Green poll fairly consistently across the country, around 10-12%, and dropping to 7% in the Prairies and the Maritimes. Nonetheless, considering none of the other federal parties receive similar consistent support across Canada, this is a strength the Greens should be focusing more strongly on.

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Revealing once again that education does make a difference in politics, Conservative support declines as education rates increase, while support for the Liberals and NDP increases as a result. The Tories poll at 36% for those with a high school education, but drop to 25% for those with a university education. The Liberals meanwhile go from 23% at high school to 36% with university. The NDP receive lesser gains, but gains nonetheless, with support moving from 12% at high school level to 18% with university.

Another interesting statistic is that the Greens poll 13% at the high school level, 9% at the college level, then back up to 10% at the university level. I suspect this is again due to the larger amount of support the party receives from youth, a generation who has yet to graduate post-secondary. With age and increasing cynicism towards politics, Green support likely moves over to the more established parties, as voters feel less likely to “waste their vote.”

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Gender makes a difference as well. The Conservatives are still the party of old white men, receiving disproportionately more male support at 34.8% than female support at 27.9%. The Liberals have worked throughout the years to correct this imbalance and are consistent hovering around 29% for both male and female support. Likely due to their focus on social support services, the NDP receive more support from females at 18.7%, compared to males at 14.3%. Perhaps due to a greater understanding and sympathy for future generations and the impacts on the world environment, the Greens also pull in more support from females at 13.4%, compared to males at 9%. Interestingly, the Bloc also has balanced support between males and females.

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Age, and generational change, reveals some of the most interesting data. The Tories and the Grits both poll strongly in the 65 and older category, at roughly 35% each – the numbers for the NDP (12%) and the Greens (6%) are in comparison insignificant. Could these be because this generation of voters grew up in a two-party world where the NDP were not yet a viable third option?

NDP support is at its highest in the 25-44 year old range, perhaps reflecting its family-direct policies and programs. It receives the weakest youth support of the four main federal parties, and very little support from the seniors. The New Democrats need to expand their tent if they ever hope to form an opposition or government.

Liberal support is the inverse of the New Democrats. It receives the highest youth support of all parties and is tied with the Tories for the seniors. Support drops to the 25% range for the 25-44 and 45-64 aged crowd.  I’m curious as to where the youth support came from, though I do know the Liberals have done well with giving youth a strong voice in policy development and direction. Did Stephanie Dion’s environmental focus also attract youth over to the Grits? It seems as though they need to focus on matching the NDP’s policies for families to help shore up support during a person’s working years.

The Bloc’s support is actually the lowest among seniors at 7.8%. It increases as voters get younger – a bad sign for federalists. Youth are the key to ending Quebec separatism and it seems as if the battle is currently being lost.

The inverse is occurring with the Greens though. They receive the strongest amount of support from those under 25 with 19%. It drops to 12% among 25-44 year olds, 9.9% among 45-64 year olds, and 6% among seniors. The numbers certainly reveal that the Greens, if they are to ever make a breakthrough, have their secret weapon in demographics. With their focus on balancing economic demands with environmental concerns, as well as being the youngest, as thus least tarnished, of the federal parties, the Greens have the youth vote in the bag – if they can get the youth to actually vote! With the Millennials voting even less than Gen X, the statistical support the Greens receive rarely turns into votes, let alone seats. The Greens need to come up with mobilization strategies that will get youth to vote, as well as retention strategies to ensure they grow up Green, rather than switch to other parties as they get older.