That is my prediction. It’s because that’s the way Campbell’s BC Liberals work. They are economy first; social services second. You’re already beginning to see it happening. Now that the economy is in full swing, and we’ve seen a series of provincial surpluses, the provincial government is ready to start putting funding back from where they once took: education, healthcare, the environment. Just look at the announcement several months ago about a huge expansion of social housing – that came from nowhere, all because the money is finally there.

As people love to point out, there’s no way we can meet the environmental reduction targets without seriously reducing our greenhouse gases, and considering transportation covers about 45% of our provincial emissions, that’s where drastic reductions are going to come from. You have to remember though that the end date for these goals is 2020. Just because they haven’t gotten into full gear with the plan so far, doesn’t mean they won’t start soon.

The Gateway project is a perfect example of the Liberals’ mentality. They are taking care of the major “economic” transport expansions projects now, so that they have the revenues to pay for and support transit and cycling expansion later down the line.

The Translink overhaul occuring in 2008… the completion of the Gateway project by 2010… the climate change intiative with reductions by 2020… the stranglehold on Evergreen Line funding… it all lines up too perfectly. That’s without mentioning how Translink will be putting together a new 30 year rapid transit plan over the next year, and how the Livable Region Strategic Plan will have to be rewritten or severely updated soon as well.

I can see it already. As soon as the new Translink is in place, they will complete a review of the current plans. The Evergreen Line may change to SkyTrain. Kevin Falcon will proudly announce during the groundbreaking of the Port Mann twinning how the Liberals will fund the Evergreen Line. And over the course of the next year, as Translink completes it’s 30 year vision, the Liberals will announce immediate funding to expand the Millennium Line, and to fast track rapid transit expansion south of the Fraser. They will also fund vast bus improvement and expansion plans, and new cycling routes.

It works, doesn’t it?! I can see it happening.

And it really doesn’t have to do with all the pressure people have been putting on the Liberals. They don’t actually give in. They fund the social services as they are able to – according to their way of running government. This is why the Port Mann will get twinned, regardless of what people say, and why it’s getting funded instead of transit expansion.

The only good thing about all the complaining people do is make sure their ideas get on the table. The louder the Valley is, the higher on the list of priorities rapid transit for their area will be. If they don’t make a peep, plans won’t get written up, nor will we ever get the money.

See, this is why it is essential the government knows what we want as a region. Because when 2008 rolls around, and they get to the finance department and decide how much they want to spend and where to spend it, they will be looking at what the people are demanding and what makes the most sense in terms of cost/benefit ratio – not only financially, but politically (and thus, how their announcements will be taken and/or spun in the media).

This is why the south of Fraser region needs to be united with rapid transit they want. Will they settle for BRT? Do they want SkyTrain or will LRT work? Where will the routes go – Fraser Hwy, King George, the Interurban line, 200th, etc.? We need to put our heads together on this and decide what exactly we want.

Vancouver already knows it’s demands: Millennium Line down Broadway to UBC, and funding for the Downtown Streetcar Initiative. The Tri-Cities want the Evergreen Line, but they may ask for it to be SkyTrain by the time it’s actually back on the table. There’s too many voices calling for too many things in the south of Fraser region.

Stay tuned for my Transit Metropolis Vancouver plan. I’ve already gotten several good reactions to it, and I truly think, out of all the suggestions for rapid transit lines in the region that I’ve heard of, this plan brings together the best ideas. If we need something to rally around, and I believe we do, this plan will be it.

UPDATE: I might’ve been closer to the truth that even I expected!